Core Book 1 & Its Graduate Upgrade
- 1. Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb: This book reveals how randomness often manufactures “geniuses” and changes how we perceive outcomes. It warns against “survivorship bias,” showing that we frequently mistake a lucky tailwind for our own talent.
- 2. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (Graduate Level): This book explains the exact brain wiring behind why we get fooled by randomness. It details “System 1” (which makes you jump to conclusions) and “System 2” (which helps you avoid those mental errors).
Core Book 2 & Its Graduate Upgrade
- 3. Think Again by Adam Grant: Grant highlights that the smarter you are, the harder it is to change your mind. Successful people often fall into a “proficiency prison,” blindly defending their past wins rather than staying curious.
- 4. The Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Christensen (Graduate Level): This companion book shows exactly why major companies choose to stay in their proficiency prisons, using historical examples like Intel ignoring the GPU revolution to protect its computer chip business.
Core Book 3 & Its Graduate Upgrade
- 5. Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke: Duke teaches you to treat every life and business decision like a poker bet. Rather than acting based on fear or guaranteed outcomes, you should calculate your odds, assess the risks, and plan for failure.
- 6. Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock (Graduate Level): Tetlock’s research shows that the most accurate forecasters do not think in rigid “yes or no” terms. Instead, they think purely in probabilities and constantly update their odds every time new data becomes available.
Core Book 4
- 7. The Intelligence Trap by David Robson: The final book explores a dangerous cognitive trap: highly intelligent people possess a unique failure mode because they are capable of rationalizing anything. Rather than questioning their mistakes, they act as their own defense attorneys, trapping themselves in their own narratives.
